平井俊顕(上智大学）
量的緩和政策についての覚書
(1)本来のマネタリストの考えに沿った見解について
マネタリー・ベースの残高(銀行の当座預金残高）からマネー・ストックを推定することは不可能。
マネー・ストックは、銀行がどれだけマネタリー・ベースを用いて貸
し出しを実体経済に対して行なうのか、そして実体経済はそれを
用いてどのような経済活動を展開するのかに依存して、結果とし
て決まるからである。物価が算定されるのはそれと同時である
（貨幣数量説の言うようにマネー・ストックが物価（ＣＰＩ）を決定す
るという因果関係はない）。
(2)本来のマネタリストの考えに沿わない見解 (インフレ・ターゲット
論)について
上記のマネタリストの考えに沿わない場合、マネタリー・ベースか
らCPIの2%上昇を実現させる方法はなくなることを意味する (沿っ
た場合でも実現させる方法はないのであるが)。とりわけマネー・
ストックには注目しない立場にたつわけであり、そうなるとマネタリ
ー・ベースは貸し出しに用いられなくともよいわけで、銀行はそれ
を寝かせておいてもよいわけである。
マネタリー・ベースからCPIの2％上昇を論証・検証できていない
状況で、そのルートとは異なる2％のインフレ期待を、人々に信用
させることなどできる相談ではない。
中央銀行がマネタリー・ベースを激増させ、そしてそれをCPIが2%
上昇するまでコミットする、と言っても、マネタリー・ベースはただ
激増するだけで、その後の経路は、人々の「予想」任せ、というこ
とになり、それでは2%の実現を人々に信用させることはできない、
ということである。
マネタリー・ベースとマネー・ストックの関係、さらにはそれが物
価指数（ＣＰＩ）に与える影響と言うルートを考えないとなると、マネ
タリー・ベースの役割は何なのか、という問題に遭遇する。
中央銀行の論理からすると、予想実質利子率の下落がすべて
のようで、それが経済主体のポートフォリオ・リバランスをもたらす
ことですべてが上昇傾向に向かい、2％のＣＰＩ上昇がもたらされ
る、ということになる。
だが、中央銀行のコミットメントが2％のインフレを引き起こ
すメカニズムを説明できていない状況で、人々に2％のインフレ実
現を信じ込ませ、かれらを上記のリバランス行動に移す行動に向
かわせることは、無理であろう。
予想実質利子率に依拠した理論では、これだけをもとに
して、消費や投資行動は把握できるようになっている。
消費者は、予想実質利子率を信じることはない。仮に信じたとし
てもそれにより、預金を崩して、それを株式に向けることはない。
現状では、消費者はデフレ・マインドだから消費をしないのでは
なく実質所得の低下、非正規雇用の激増、そして将来の社会保
障への懸念などによって消費を増やさないのである。
仮に彼らの予想を2％上昇させたとしても、それで消費者の行動
が変わることはないとみるのが妥当であろう。
企業が投資を増やさないのは、内部留保を巨額に保有している
からだという。そしてそれは、 (予想) 実質利子率がマイナスにな
る、と企業が思えば、企業はそれを吐き出し、投資に向ける、と述
べているように思える。
だが、企業が国内で投資をしないのは、利潤を得ると見込めな
いからであり、保有する資金のコストだけの変動で動いているわ
けではない。
ギリシアの悲劇的状況 － 隷属国家にシェンゲン追放に渦巻く難民状況の現出
ギリシアはユーロ危機のなかで最も激しい闘いをトロイカにたいして７月まで行なっていた。
それが、ＥＣＢから現金引き出しの制限を付けられ、最後の最後でティプラスはトロイカの
軍門に下った。
以降は、トロイカが要求してくる超緊縮政策を遂行するだけとなって今日まできたのだが、
さらなるカットや増税が要求され、すり減っていた社会的な神経がほとんど
切れかかっている。ゼネストも計画され、政治的緊張は高まりをみせている。
そうした折りに、ギリシアはたまたま大量の難民のＥＵへの入り口となるという
二重苦を味わっている。昨年だけで８０万人がギリシアを通過してバルカン、そして
目的地のドイツに流入している(ドイツには合計１１０万人）。
ギリシアには金がない。金のないギリシアがこれらの難民をさばく行政的余力もない。
それをブリュッセルとドイツは、ギリシアが怠慢であることをかなり激しく批判するだけ
ではなく、この状態を改善しなければ、シェンゲン協定から一時離脱してもらう、という
要求をつきつけている（しかし、ギリシアにはこの難民関連の援助資金は届いていない
らしい）。
他方、トルコだが、ブリュッセルもメルケルも、トルコが自国で難民を引きとめ、
難民業を営む不法業者を処罰してもらうために、３０億ユーロを支払うことを取り決めた
ものの、その資金調達のメドは立っていない（例えば、イタリアはこれに激しく反対して
いる）。それに、この資金は「第１回目の資金」という位置づけになっている。
言えることはトルコは、おそらくやる気はないだろう、ということだ。エルドアンにとっては
そんな問題よりも（すでにシリア難民は２００万人を超えている）、
クルド民族の独立国宣言的行動の方が大問題であるからである。
＊＊＊
ブリュッセルやメルケルの言うことはほとんどメンバー国は聞かなく
なっている。いまではどこもかしこも国境を閉鎖して警備を厳重に
しており、それはハンガリーの専売特許ではなくなっている。
そしてこの状況をブリュッセルやメルケルは２年間認めるという判断を
下している。事実上の権威の消滅状態である。
＊＊＊
いま起きようとしている重大な問題は、難民の勢いは厳冬でも衰えを知らず
昨年１月の３０倍が押し寄せている。マケドニア国境が閉鎖されると、難民は
先に進むことができず、経済的社会的苦難に苦しんでいるギリシアに溢れかえる
という事態の現出になる。この状態を長く放置することは考えられない。
ギリシアをユーロから追い出すという次元の問題ではなくなる。一種の地獄
状態の出現になる。
ギリシアには何の責任もない問題を、たまたまの地理的境遇から、難民が
一挙に押し寄せてくる。そしてギリシアには人を助けるどころの状態に
長年にわたってすでにないのである。そこへ着の身着のままの難民が押し寄せて
くる、となれば、これはとんでもない事態である。
にもかかわらず、ＥＵは責任をギリシアに押し付けて、さらにはシェンゲン協定
から追い出すぞ、と脅しをかける始末である。そのＥＵはメンバー国をまとめる
ガバナンス力が、とりわけ難民問題によって喪失してしまっているのである。
＊＊＊
Greeks worry threatened closure of EU border ‘would be the definition of dystopia’
For hundreds of thousands of refugees Greece was seen as just a transit point. Now, as walls go up across Europe they risk being trapped there
An Afghan woman arriving with her child in Athens’ main port of Piraeus last week. Photograph: Petros Giannakouris/AP
Helena Smith
Saturday 30 January 2016 23.00 GMTLast modified on Saturday 30 January 201623.10 GMT
Walter Mugisha never meant to end up in Eleonas. When the computer technician left his native Uganda, Denmark was his goal, not a dusty camp in a former olive grove in the industrial moonscape of Athens.
For the 32-year-old, as for the vast majority of Syrian migrants and refugees making the perilous crossing from Turkey, Greece was a transit point, the route that would get him there. Athens was happy to oblige, waving through the estimated 850,000 men, women and children who have similarly landed on its shores, providing transport but never hosting the caravan of humanity that, over the course of a tumultuous 2015, wended its way from the Mediterranean, through the Balkan peninsula and further north into central Europe.
Mugisha, like so many, came with nothing. “Everything you see, the clothes I am wearing, I got here,” he smiles, stocky and sparkly eyed. “I arrived with my Bible, my shield, the one thing I kept close to my chest. And now, because I am not a Syrian, because I am not a war refugee, I am praying every day that I will be granted political asylum, that I will get to Denmark, that I will live my dream.”
With its numbered cabins and cavernous tents, basic amenities and sole basketball ring, Eleonas was only ever intended to be a stopgap solution for the migrant wave on the road through Greece. But bigger things – way beyond Greece’s control – have put an end to that. Across Europe walls have come down; barriers have gone up and rhetoric has swelled as EU member states, one after another in the wave of the jihadi attacks on Paris, have reinforced frontiers and closed their doors.
Migrants play soccer at the Eleonas refugee camp in Athens. Eleonas is filling up as thousands are prevented from continuing their journey north. Photograph: Alkis Konstantinidis/Reuters
Suddenly, Eleonas’s cabins are filling up, its residents, like Walter, prevented from continuing their journey north by nations no longer willing to accept anyone not deemed to be from a war-torn zone. And it may just be the beginning.
With Brussels contemplating drastic measures to stem the flow, calls are mounting to seal the Greek-Macedonian border, raising fears of hundreds of thousands being stranded in Greece, the country now perceived to be the continent’s weakest link.
Greek islanders to be nominated for Nobel peace prize
Read more
The prospect of migrants being trapped in a member state that financially is also Europe’s most fragile may once have seemed extreme, even absurd. Its economy ravaged by six years of internationally mandated austerity and record levels of unemployment, Greece’s coping strategies are markedly strained. But as EU policymakers seek ever more desperate ways to deal with what has become the largest mass movement of people since the second world war, it is an action plan being actively worked on by mandarins at the highest level. Like so much else in the great existential crisis facing Europe, a proposed policy that was once seen as bizarre now looks like it could become real.
Last week Athens was also given a three-month ultimatum to improve the way it processes arrivals and polices its borders – at nearly 8,700 miles the longest in Europe – or face suspension from the passport-free Schengen zone. Closure of the Greek-Macedonian frontier would effectively cut it out of that fraternity.
Those who have watched Greece’s rollercoaster struggle to keep insolvency at bay are united in their conviction that the move would be catastrophic. “It would place a timebomb under the foundations of Greece,” says Aliki Mouriki, a prominent sociologist at the National Centre of Social Research. “Hundreds of thousands of refugees trapped in a country that is bankrupt, that has serious administrative and organisational weaknesses, with a state that is unable to provide for their basic needs?” The question hangs in the air while she searches for the right word. “What we would witness,” she adds, “would be the definition of dystopia.”
Like the mayors who have been forced to deal with the emergency on Greece’s eastern Aegean isles, federal politicians believe Turkey is the root of the problem. “With all due respect for a country that is hosting 2 million refugees, it is Turkey that must do something to stop the organised crime, the smugglers working along its coast,” Yannis Mouzalas, the minister for migration policy, told the Observer. “These flows are not Greece’s fault even if, it is true, we have been slow to set up hotspots and screening was not always what it should have been,” he said. “It is Turkey that turns a blind eye to them coming here. It is Turkey that must stop them. Why is Greece guilty? Because it doesn’t let them drown?”
Greece hits back after EU's Schengen threat
Read more
Two months after the European Union decided to shower gifts on Ankara – taking the unprecedented step of paying it €3bn to staunch the exodus – Athens is still praying the deal will work. If Turkey can institute policies that will give incentives to Syrians to enter its labour market, crack down on the traffickers working along its western shores and successfully apply a readmission agreement, such measures could also be used in Jordan and Lebanon.
But optimism is in short supply. Turkey is pressing for more money amid grumbling that the initial payment has yet to be received as member states, led by Italy, bicker over the wisdom of having signed such an accord at all.
The timetable is pressing. In March, German chancellor Angela Merkel faces crucial regional elections, by which time she wants to have seen a tangible reduction in immigrant numbers. The European commission has also said a solution is not months but weeks away if the borderless Schengen area – the continent’s greatest achievement – is to survive.
Turkish gendarmes carry the body of a migrant onto a beach yesterday after at least 33 migrants drowned when their boat sank while trying to cross from Turkey to Greece. Photograph: Ozan Kose/AFP/Getty Images
Analysis The EU must reassert humane control over chaos around the Mediterranean
The idea of expelling Greece from the Schengen area violates EU principles
Read more
“If Turkey fails to deliver, Europe’s next course of action will be to turn Greece into a de facto refugee camp by sealing the border on the Macedonia side,” says Mujtaba Rahman, the head of European analysis at Eurasia Group, a risk consultancy.
“Closing the Greek-Macedonian border would represent a huge political shock for Tsipras’s government, already struggling to implement economic reforms as part of its bailout,” says Rahman. “The government would become much less cooperative over other aspects of refugee policy … and Tsipras might see early elections as his only get-out, which would be very damaging for the economy, not to mention the politics given the current popularity of [neo-fascist party] Golden Dawn.”
Last week, as the idea of exchanging Athens’s staggering debt load for the hosting of refugees was also mooted, the rhetoric became even more shrill. “Such a bargain is unacceptable. Greece has its dignity,” fumed Athens’s normally mild-mannered mayor, Giorgos Kaminis. “We are not going to sell our dignity and our wellbeing for alleviating our debt.”
Kaminis’s frustration should not be underestimated. Away from Lesbos and Kos and the other islands on the frontline of the crisis, Athens has also been caught up in the storm, buffeted by the thousands who, at the height of the influx last summer, turned its parks and plazas into tent cities.
On its grimy streets and gritty central squares, the mood is one of quiet foreboding. In January alone more than 50,000 migrants and refugees poured into Greece despite the bad weather and choppy seas. At least 9% of those who pass through the Greek capital are, like Walter, unable to continue the journey north, according to the United Nations refugees agency, UNHCR.
Aegean Sea refugee crossings rise 35 fold year-on-year in January - watchdog
Read more
Few are under any illusion about a decrease in the numbers. On Saturday at least 39 migrants, including several children, were drowned as they tried to make the sea crossing from Turkey to Greece. The Salvation Army, whose team works out of offices near Victoria Square, the main hub for the newly arrived, expects the influx to grow. Two weeks ago it opened a new day centre for refugees, where shipments from around the world of clothes, shoes and sleeping bags are stockpiled and stacked.
“Last year there was chaos, but it was chaos that moved,” says Polis Pandelides, a Salvation Army officer. “This year, with fences going up, all the signs are that it will be a static chaos with people being stuck here.”
Pandelides, who lived in Britain for years, exudes a Gandhian calm as he sits under the mulberry trees of Victoria Square, bantering with Omar and Ali, young Moroccans who arrived from Turkey on Monday and are now bent on reaching Sweden. Like Walter, both appear oblivious to Scandinavia’s new resolve to clamp down on migrants. “There’s a big problem in Greece, big problem, no money,” says Omar. “We will walk through the mountains [of Albania and Bulgaria] if we have to.”
Pandelides looks at those assembled in the square – the meeting place in a neighbourhood that, decrepit and poor, is a stronghold of xenophobic Golden Dawn. Almost all are like the two Moroccans, young, strong-willed, determined and wide-eyed.
“Nobody can predict what will happen,” Pandelides says. “But what we do know is that the problem will become massive, violence will increase, attitudes will change if there are thousands more and the government doesn’t find a way to return them or move them on.”
