バーナンキの去就
FRBのバーナンキの任期が来年１月に切れるが、それをめぐっての憶測。
財務長官ルーや（クリントン政権時の財務長官）ルービンは、この問題を問われても、けっして答えようとしない。オバマは、バーナンキとはうまく折り合っていないようなところがある。
が、バーナンキの手腕は高く評価されているのが、大方の評である。量的緩和政策(QE)は３度にわたって行われてきており、国債およびMBSの無制限の市場からの購入により、金融緩和が継続されてきた。財政政策は、共和党の攻勢の前に完全に押さえ込まれているなか（いまは超財政緊縮の推進をよぎなくされる事態に陥っている)、唯一の景気浮揚策がこのQEである。この効果によるところがあったのか、アメリカ経済はかなり上向いてきているという現状がある。
が、懸念される点は、このQE政策の継続の結果、FRBには莫大な額の債券が保有されているという点である。これが市場に売却されると債券価格の下落と長期利子率の上昇が生じることになる。
同じ問題はユーロ圏（PIIGSのデフォルトを回避するために、巨額のユーロ債の買い入れをECBは行ってきている）、日本（２％のCPIの上昇を目指して日銀は同様のQEを実施している）でも生じている。つまり、経済の向上のためにアメリカと日本、ユーロ・システムの死守のためにEUは、同じようなQE政策をとり、そして中央銀行のバランス・シートは似たような状況になっている。そしてアメリカはシークエスターのために、EUはユーロ・システム防衛のために、超緊縮予算を課している。日本はいまのところ財政政策を遂行している
（いわゆる、第２の矢）。
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Ben Bernanke's gilt-edged end of term report
The Federal Reserve chairman still gets rave reviews. But will his rep be so shiny after the Fed unwinds quantitative easing?
Heidi Moore
guardian.co.uk, Wednesday 3 July 2013 15.36 BST
Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke testifies on Capitol Hill in Washington, May 2013. Photograph: Manuel Balce Ceneta/AP
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke was not at the Aspen Ideas Festival, but he's all anyone can talk about – or rather, not talk about.
At the Ideas Festival, the various economic and financial luminaries simultaneously privately wondered about Bernanke and publicly refused to speculate. Both current Treasury Secretary Jack Lew and a former one, Bob Rubin, were badgered about Bernanke's plans several times. They stubbornly refused to allow even a wisp of an answer.
Take this exchange (pdf) between Secretary Lew and his interviewer, David Leonhardt of the New York Times.
Leonhardt: "Are you playing a major role in helping the president decide who to nominate for the next term at the Fed? Not monetary policy."
Lew: "David, I think I'm going to stick to my answer on monetary policy, which is my conversations on this with the president should remain private."
Leonhardt also interviewed Rubin, who evaded the question of Bernanke's term quickly:
"I think I'm going to leave that subject."
If it's any comfort, however, the absent Bernanke received rave reviews. David Rubenstein, the co-founder of the Carlyle Group, said:
"Ben Bernanke reinvented the Federal Reserve system … the Fed decided that because Congress was dysfunctional, the only way to get the economy going again was QE1, QE2 and QE3 … he's done a wonderful job."
Rubin credited Bernanke with saving the economy with QE1, which he called "critical to getting off the abyss".
Bernanke launched the nation's largest economic and financial stimulus program a few years ago in the form of "quantitative easing": buying up treasury bonds and mortgage-backed securities from the market. While this has been very helpful to the markets and, to some extent, the economy, it has also left the Fed holding trillions of dollars of bonds, which, eventually, it will have to sell. There is, among financial nerds, intermittent panic over the issue of the Fed's unwinding of this program.
The chairman has been coy about the timing of his plans to leave the Fed. That has, naturally, served as a signal for everyone else to speculate wildly. President Obama has not been helpful to the cause after essentially saying Bernanke hated his job. One thing it's safe to assume, however, is that with his term up in January, Ben Bernanke won't be there for the burial of QE – as he was for its birth.
