2013年8月24日土曜日

米英国際通貨システム交渉 - 1944.2 - 1944.4

米英国際通貨システム交渉 - 1944.2 - 1944.4

・Lord Cherwell's comment to the PM on 9 Feb.

大蔵省内に2つの派の対立
  (1)ケインズ派 ・・・supported by most of the Treasury,Economic Section, and the Board of Trade

(2) B.O.E. ... Henderson and Eady

. Feb. 11 ... agreed to set up a Committee on External Economic Policy to determine the instruction p.408

.17 Feb. Keyne's letter to Waley
この委員会での議論の様子を、complete bedlam と評している。p.409

・この委員会 Feb.18 の報告書
 Beaverbrook は不同意書を出している。

委員会報告:ほぼケインズの見解が反映されている。p.409

Beeverbrook:BOEと相談して代替案を作るべし p.410

・Feb.23 Keynes's memo to the Chancellor

・suitable provisions for the transitional period が重要。

・BOEがアメリカからの金融支援を回避する方策を追究していることへの批判

It is no good favouring currency arrangements seriously inconsistent with the other branches of their post-war policy. p.411

.an Empire bloc for trade and currency ...この方法をとれば大英帝国は解体する、とケインズは警告を発している。

次のケインズの認識は重要

We are in no position, therefore, to set up as international bankers, undertaking large and not closely defined liabilities, unless we can scure a general settlement on the basis of temporary American assistance followed by an international scheme. p.412

・閣議は多数派報告の線で討議をするめることに同意。

・自治領との続く討議で指導的役割をケインズ演じる
monetisation of unitas, scarce currencies, exchange rate policies, management and the transitio period.

March 14 Keynes's letter to Melville,

in so far as the remedy is to be found in the realm of external policy, it should take the form of great enthusiasm for buffer stocks.
It is precesely to protect primary producers aginst such catastrophes that buffer stocks are proposed. p.414

(国際緩衝案へのこだわり)Check the situation for it at this moment.

.March 8 Keynes's letter to Beaverbrook

BOEへの激しい批判

Why, why, why should you be found, on this occasion, on their side?
p.417

・Beaverbrook の応答 ... BOE的立場の擁護

International Bank scheme by Whiteにたいするケインズのコメント
p.419

かなり批判的論調になっている。

ケインズは、IBは直接貸し付け能力よりもguarantee 能力を活かすことを強調している。p.423

重要なケインズの主張

We feel very strongly indeed that loans from creditor countries to debtor countries in the early post-war period are essential to avoid widespread economic chaos and much neeless human suffering. p.425

・詳細よりも、主たる原則を明らかにすることがいまは重要である。
p.427

.March 21 Dominionsとの討議終了

・March 18 Keynes's letter to White

The result of this was that you and Opie were able to arrive at a text, which was complete in respect of the discussions up to that point, except the question of the unitasu version. Personnaly, I think it most unlikely that we shall make unitas a condition of acceptance, but we are not yet in a position to tell you so officially. p.428

ユニタス問題を合意締結の条件にはしないという意味。

・英領自治領討議の結論

monetised unitasを好むが、それにはこだわらないとの決議 p.429

・Keynes ... attempted to get permission for Mr Opie to tell the Americans the Dominion's vier on the monetaisation of unitasu. He failed.
p.430

March 29, Keynes's letter to Eady

the question of the relationship of the monetary scheme to the other schemes の重要性 p.430

He [Opie] will have to tell White whether or not we approve the unitas point. The sooner he does this, ... , the better. p.431

God knows what sort of international conference (最終的にはブレトンウッズ会議に至る)he has in mind. But all this seems to me just a frightful muddle, whis we need not take seriously.p.432

April 14
イギリス内閣、Joint Statement の刊行に同意。

このころ、持病の心臓病に苦しんでいた。

April 16

次の一文は重要

If our attitude can be construed, not perhaps legitimately but plausiby, as a departure from, or repudiation of, our obligations under Article VII of the Mutual Aid Agreement, I have not a doubt that the Americans will retaliate by withdrawing from the rest of this Agreement. This could mena our losing the sheet-anchor of our post-war settlement of lend lease, namely the undertaking that the ultimate arrangements shall not be 'such as to burden commerce'. p.435